Conclusion: Issues and Challenges in Transport Geography

Authors: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dr. Claude Comtois and Dr. Brian Slack

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1. Congestion

The causes of congestion are well understood, even if the solutions are not. Congestion arises from two causes. Most important is when demand for mobility exceeds the capacity so support it. It can also occur when random events bring about a temporary disruption to service, such as an accident or a natural hazard such as flooding. In the case of the second set of causes, it is possible to mitigate their effects if the occurrence is frequent, such as accidents, or if the risks are great, as for example of flooding in a flood plain. In the first case a solution is to increase capacity. However, as has been shown, increasing capacity engenders a hidden demand, so that adding lanes to an expressway tend to attract even more cars. Furthermore, demand is increasing ceaselessly, so that the practicality of this solution may be questioned.

The issue of congestion is likely to remain as one of great ongoing issues in transport geography because there are unprecedented demands for transportation being generated by a global economy that is ever more dependent upon the transport industry. The growth of demand is likely to have major impacts on the nature and form of the future transport industry.

In the short term at least, road transport is likely to continue its domination of the transport industry. There are two basic reasons for this assertion. In the developed world automobiles and trucks already dominate the market, and the spatial patterns of people, industries and services have adjusted themselves somewhat to the demands of these modes. Such low density, space extensive patterns are pushing the traffic congestion ever further out, and make it very difficult for other higher capacity modes to compete. At the same time the demand for mobility is growing as a result of the rapid industrialization of countries such as China and India. There too a modal shift is occurring in favor of road transport. Increasing prosperity in these countries represents a great potential for growth in road transport.

Congestion is not limited to internal urban-generated traffic. International trade is likely to continue to be dominated by maritime transport (in terms of weight) and air transport (in terms of value). This has already led to a concentration of traffic a relatively small number of hubs, which are capable of extracting scale economies. For example, the 20 largest container ports handled more than 52% of global traffic in 2005. The traffic concentration however is already producing capacity problems in many of these hubs. International trade has grown at a rate faster than the global economy in recent decades and there are expectations that hub congestion will remain an issue in the future.

For geographers there are a whole range of issues arising out of the growth of demand and the paralysis of congestion. Here, they are grouped into two categories. First, are a series of questions surrounding how to provide solutions, second are the effects on future spatial patterns.

In the past the solution to congestion was to provide more capacity by building more infrastructure. Such a response depended heavily on engineering solutions. As has been learned over the last few decades, the model of “predict and accommodate” has not worked well. It is now recognized that a multi-disciplinary approach is required. It is recognized that there will still be a heavy reliance on engineering skills to design and construct infrastructure and systems, and to develop further technological innovations required for the “intelligent highway”. However, transport policy and planning requires a broader perspective, one that considers different goals and alternatives, responds to different needs for mobility, and one that seeks ways to manage demand. Under what conditions and in what types of locations can travel demand be modified? Does the current emphasis on proposing densification as a solution to reducing car dependence work? How might freight transport be better integrated in the urban environment?

Congestion is a phenomenon that is spatially bound. It takes place in specific locations with impacts at a multitude of scales, from a particular highway intersection that may delay traffic over a few hundred meters, to blockage in a port that may disrupt the flow of goods over half a continent. Each event produces a spatial response, from the car driver who searches out an alternative route in future to the shipper who selects a different mode or point of entry for succeeding shipments.

Increased demand and the rising likelihoods of congestion will intensify new spatial responses and thus it appears very likely that new spatial flows and structures will come into being. What will be the effects? What kinds of impact will be evident at the local, regional or global scales? Will congestion be sufficient to counteract the strong forces favoring concentration? Already there is evidence in air transport for growth in passengers and freight in some smaller airports. Will congestion in the newly industrializing countries act as a break on development?

2. Infrastructure

Regardless of the specific solutions to congestion that are considered, increasing demand is placing unprecedented requests for investments on transport infrastructures. A major question confronting all countries of the world is how to finance the construction and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Governments have traditionally been the primary source of funding in the transport sector, but the costs of keeping pace with the growth in demand are making it difficult for even the richest countries to countenance public funding on the scale required.

Capital requirements are particularly prevalent on both sides of the infrastructure life cycle spectrum. Over this matter the highways in China and North America represent two salient cases. For China, the last decade has seen an impressive level of highway construction with the setting of a national highway network which totaled more than 53,000 km in 2007, the second longest in the world. Comparatively, the American Interstate highway system of about 75,000 km is nearing a phase of its life cycle where a substantial amount of capital investment will be required to upgrade the system and maintain its operability, including thousands of aging highway bridges. While most of Interstate is publicly funded, almost all Chinese highways were funded by private interests that are using tolls to recover their investments.

Public-private partnerships and completely private solutions are one set of solutions. For many developing countries this is the only solution, since public finances are inadequate to the task. Thus, in the future, a greater private involvement in the provision of transport infrastructure is to be expected. Several models are already well tested: BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer), where the private sector builds and operates a facility or system for a period of time, but then transfers it back to the government after an agreed period; BLT (Build-Lease-Transfer) where after building the facilities, it is leased for a fixed period for operation, and finally transferred back; ROT (Rehabilitate-Operate-Transfer) where the private party refurbishes an existing facility to be operated for a term prior to be turned back to the state.

Another approach that is gaining momentum is charging for use of transport infrastructure. Pricing is becoming an important feature of transport planning in urban areas. Whether it is cordon pricing, congestion pricing, or tolling, drivers are being forced to pay for their use of roads and limited price elasticity has been observed so far. With the growing concerns over the environment, charging for the externalities of transport modes is becoming a reality in many jurisdictions. How effective are these alternatives? What effects do they have over travel behavior?

The difficulties are not to be underestimated, however. Most transport infrastructure projects are long term, but are typified by the heaviest capital investment requirements being incurred over a short initial phase. Most private enterprises cannot take a long term perspective, because they need to cover their expenses over short period of time. With the growing unwillingness or inability of the public sector to fund and provide transport infrastructure, what form and structure in infrastructure provision, maintenance and operation will be achieved?

3. Environmental Challenges

The issue of sustainability has become an increasing important consideration for the transport industry. It is now broadly recognized that there needs to be a balance between economic efficiency, social factors and the environment. Of these three, the issue of economic efficiency has always been to the forefront, and governments have been important in regulating social conditions (safety, security, and working conditions). Despite the strong historic relationships between transport and the environment, the latter has tended to be overlooked by the industry. This is changing, and environmental issues are likely to play an ever more important role in the transport industry, particularly over three core dimensions:

• Transport and atmospheric pollution. Air quality standards are being implemented with increasing rigor in more and more countries around the world. There are still striking differences between regions and between the modes. For example, most of the countries of the developing world still have to go a long way to fixing and enforcing standards. In North America, passenger vehicles are more rigorously controlled than trucks, and ships are much less controlled than other modes. However, the trend is towards greater control over emissions. What will be the modal effects and the impacts on modal competition? Which regions and what transport systems are most likely to be impacted?
• Transport and water quality. The contribution of transport to the pollution of rivers and oceans is considerable, and is only recently being addressed by international legislation. Considerable progress has been made in a number of areas such as ballast water, waste and oil spills. As the legislation increases in its comprehensiveness, the more the transport industry is impacted. This is particularly evident in matters relating to dredging, where environmental constraints are placing a growing financial burden on ports that are seeking to deepen channels in order to keep pace with the growth of vessels size. Will these constraints serve to reduce the competitiveness of some ports? Will increased dredging costs bring about a break in the growth of vessel size? Similar questions arise out of coastal zone legislation, especially the provisions for protecting wetlands.
• Transport and land take. Increased demand for transport is already placing enormous pressures for new infrastructures. Many of these transport facilities such as airports and ports require very large amounts of land for their own internal operations and for the external transport links that have to be provided. A fundamental question is can the environment and society afford to provide sites of the scale required by the transport industry? Will the transport industry have to move away from its preferred model of massive hubs and load centers?

4. Management of Transport Systems

The transportation industry is changing so significantly in form and function that it easy to overlook the very important changes in the way it is organized and managed. Yet it is through different management practices that the spatial manifestations of the industry are expressed. It is perhaps easiest to see the changes in management through the lens of governance, where an industry that used to be largely managed and controlled by the state, has become increasingly controlled by the private sector. The privatization of transport companies and infrastructures has been an important feature of the last decade, and is likely to continue further into the present century. However, there are still many questions about the role of the state in transportation. Under what conditions and in what circumstances should continued state control be maintained and even strengthened? What are the best models of public-private partnerships in the transport industry?

The growing role of the private sector over an industry that is becoming global and multi-functional has necessitated a shift in management and ownership relationships that are still evolving. They include:

• The emergence of horizontally linked global corporations that through a series of acquisitions and mergers have bought up similar operating companies in different markets. A good example is the port terminal operators, such as Hutchison Port Corporation, a Hong Kong based firm with major investments in Europe, China and the Americas.
• The development of vertically integrated corporations that have grown by merger and acquisition to control several segments of the transport chain. Examples include A. P. Moller, a company that controls the world’s largest container fleet, an airline, terminal operating activities, trucking, barge, railroad services and logistics services in many parts of the world.
• Intermediaries that provide transport services on a global scale, without direct ownership of infrastructure. 3PL companies such as Kuhne and Nagel, Schenker and Panalpina operate in many markets and are major actors in the transport chain.
• Alliances, informal groupings of transport providers that pool resources and offer joint services between major global markets. Examples include the One World and Star airline alliances.

At the same time transport is being increasingly integrated in global production systems. It is becoming an integral part of production and distribution chains. Can it still be considered a derived demand therefore? What are the reciprocal relations between transport and production/distribution systems? How are Walmart’s distribution networks shaped by transport, and how is transport impacted by Walmart?

These management and business structures give rise to distinct patterns of spatial organization, with different operating practices. The impact of Southwest Airlines on the spatial structure of the US airline industry has been considerable, for example, and the operational interests of a vertically integrated enterprise is different than one horizontally linked. This highlights the need to understand the nature of the organization of the businesses involved in transport as a means of explaining existing patterns and predicting their future forms. The concentration of traffic (and resultant congestion) is as much explained by the organization of transport firms as it is by traditional explanations involving demand and capacity. In turn, the organization of the global firms themselves is shaped by conditions of local spatial markets. A distinct geography of transport firms exists, a geography that is still largely terra incognita.

5. Energy, Safety and Security

The macroeconomic and policy environment in which the transport sector evolves has substantially changed in recent years, bringing concerns which before were rather secondary. With the expected increases in energy costs, significant adjustments in transport modes may be expected in the future. While technologies may make alternative fuel vehicles a commercial option to the internal combustion engine, the main question is the effect of higher prices on automobiles and trucks. As the costs are passed on to users, how global production systems that depend upon cheap transport be impacted? How will the logistics industry that exploits the most energy inefficient modes be affected? Will a modal shift to more energy efficient modes, such as rail or shipping, take place? What forms of transport and mobility will take shape as the energy transition away from fossil fuels takes place?

Another prevalent matter concerns security practices that are now part of the business environment in which passenger and freight transport systems are evolving. Most of these measures are imposed by regulatory agencies with consequences often difficult to assess, but always involving additional costs and delays for transport operators. A balance between security measures and the efficient flow of passengers and freight will need to be achieved through a variety of regulatory, operational and technological innovations.

6. The Role of Geographers

Geographers have played a relatively small role in the field of transport studies, a field that has been dominated by engineers and economists. This was due in part to the needs of the industry being focused on providing infrastructures and technologies, at what cost and benefits and at what level of pricing. The contemporary industry is much more complex, with issues as varied as safety, aesthetics, working conditions, equity, deprivation, the environment, and governance being necessary considerations. A much broader set of skills are required therefore, and transport studies are essentially multi-disciplinary today. Geographers thus have important opportunities to contribute to transport studies, transport planning and transport operations, in part because of the breadth of the approach and training. Still, transport geography, like the field of transportation in general, does not receive a level of attention in academia proportional to its economic and social importance.

It is also a fundamental fact that transport is a spatial activity. It has always been a space adjusting service, but over the last few decades it has become increasingly global in scope. Contemporary transport operates at a wider range of scales than ever before. There are complex interactions between the local and the global. For example, the issues surrounding the expansion of an airport are usually decided at the local level, and the impacts are likely to be felt locally, namely its externalities such as noise and congestion. However, the effects on passenger and freight flows may have a global impact. The spatiality of transport and the many scale levels at which it operates are elements that are the particular concerns of Geographers. No other discipline has as its core interest the role of space in shaping human activities.

One reason for the success of engineers and economists in transport studies and applications is that their training has been rigorous in the application of mathematics and multivariate statistics. They have demonstrated the ability to provide precise answers to the questions that decision makers have required – what to build, at what cost, with what cost effects. There has evolved a culture in the transport industry that unless it can be quantified it is of little value. Many transport geographers have the quantitative skills that have made their work accepted by the broader scientific community. There is little doubt that training in modeling, graph theory, and multivariate statistics is required. However, there are newer techniques that provide geographers with opportunities to contribute to transport studies. GIS-T, in particular should be an essential element in the training of a transport geographer. The multi-scalar, multivariate nature of the transport industry makes GIS-T an invaluable tool, and one that will raise the profile of geographers in the transportation industry.

One of the great challenges in transport studies is data availability. Many times official census and survey data are inadequate or unavailable in the form required. Knowledge of survey techniques and their limitations are an important part of the transport geographer’s toolkit. Many of the traditional tools and approaches of geographers are still relevant. They allow us to address problems that are frequently overlooked by other disciplines because of the lack of data. Questionnaires and interviews represent a vital source of information in many situations. Content analysis is extremely useful in providing quantified data from non-quantified sources. At the same time, field work provides the opportunity to obtain detailed understanding of the particularities of the local conditions that cannot be obtained from reading texts and official documents.

The prospects for transport geography and transport geographers appear to be excellent. A look back at the subject matter and topics covered in this book indicates an industry that is growing in significance and changing. The kinds of issues that are achieving greater importance – sustainability, congestion, governance and management – are ones to which geographers have the opportunity to contribute. As the transport industry becomes more complex, old approaches, focusing on a narrow range of factors, have to be replaced by more nuanced analysis and solutions. In the transport industry itself, in public planning, and in research institutions, the scope for geographers appears bright.